How much should we slow down ?
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According to the IPCC (International Group of Climate Experts), we must limit our annual CO2 emissions to 1.5 tonnes per inhabitant so as not to exceed +2°C by 2100*. The world consumption being on average 5 tons of CO2 per year, we need to brake hard and, some countries (some people) must brake more than others. To take these inequalities into account, we will therefore consider the following sttement: if everyone was doing like me, the earth would warm up by +...°C per century **. As an exemple, if everyone did like the Senegalese, the earth would warm up by ("only") +0.4°C per century and we would achieve our goals. If everyone did like Elon Musk, the earth would warm up by +30°C per year (and become uninhabitable in a few weeks). French people contribute on average to warm the earth by +6°C by century, twice as much as the world average ***. If everyone were doing like us, we would reach the limit of +2°C in less than 15 years... More generally, these figures show that rich countries like France live well beyhond their means and need to change their way of leaving quickly and effectively to stop warming the climate.
Sources
- * 83% de chance de ne pas dépasser les 2°C -> 900 GtCO2 (IPPC) entre 2020 et 2100 (80 ans) par 8 milliards d’habitants ( 900/(80*8) = 1,4 tCO2 / ans / habitant)
- ** On considère que l'équivalent de 1 tonnes de CO2 émise par an et par personne revient à un réchauffement de +0,6°C par siècle en se basant sur l'année 2019. À cette période nous avons émis l'équivalent 5 tonnes de CO2 par personne et nous étions sur la courbe des +3°C par siècle (+3°C par siècle avec 40Gt de CO2eq émis par 8 milliards d'êtres humains)
- *** O,7t d’émissions par habitant au sénégal en négligeant les émissions liées à l’import (banquemondiale.org, 2019)
- **** 5t émissions en moyenne: 40 milliards de tonnes en 2020 / 8 Milliards d’humains
- **** 12t émissions en moyenne par français (empreinte carbone, ministère de la transition, 2022)