introduction | page 1 | page 2 | page 3 | page 4 | conclusion
cycle du carbone
Illustration of how much energy we will likely have to share in 2050.

Objective : Learn to live with 7 times less energy by 2050

We have 30 years to repair the brakes, in other words, 30 years to stop using fossil fuels. Therefore, by 2050 we must create a society in which we can live without oil, gas and coal. Since uranium resources are too low to meet global consumption (a few years if the world used exclusively nuclear energy*), the challenge is to succeed sharing energies of renewable origin (hydraulic, wind, solar, etc.). Today, less than 5% of the world's production comes from this type of energy**. Considering that this production will increase by four times by 2050 (following the current growth rate***) and following the current population growth (10 billions by 2050****), we will have to share an annual production smaller than 3000 kWh per inhabitant. Currently, we share 20,000 kWh per inhabitant*****, which means that we have 30 years left to learn how to live with at least 7 times less energy. To do so, we unfortunately need to use oil, gas and coal, amplifying the current warming.

This is the real challenge of our century : being able to live in a world with a climate that becomes increasingly more hostile, using 7 times less energy than today. The more energy we waste, the more hostile the climate will become and the less time (and means) we will have to adapt. So let's stop wasting and get to work ;)

Footnote : Instead of decreasing our energy consumption, we could decrease the number of people on earth. This would mean reducing the human population from 8 to 1.2 billion people on earth by 2050 ...

Sources

* Ordre de grandeur sur les ressources énergétiques actuelles ** En 2019, 11,5 Gtep (Giga tonne d'équivalent pétrole) de notre énergie provenait d'énergies fossiles, 0,5 Gtep d'origine nucléaires, 1,5 Gtep provenait de nos déchets et de la biomasse comprise et 0,5 Gtep d'origine hydraulique, solaire, éolienne et autres (Ministère de la transition écologique, 2022), soit 14 Gtep au total (1 Gtep ≈ 11 600 TWh ) *** 25 000 TWh environ : etrapolation faites "à la main" à partir de la courbe : https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/les-energies-renouvelables-produiront-plus-delectricite-que-le-charbon-en-2025-selon-laie-220218. **** Environ 10 milliards en 2050 (wikipedia). ***** Ce qui revient à courir un marathon par heure, pour chaque habitant sur terre)

Come along with me ;)